Trump’s Tariff Announcement Could Impact Bitcoin’s Recent Surge
In February 2026, former US President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on European countries. This macroeconomic context coincides with weak on-chain signals for Bitcoin, according to CryptoQuant. The announcement of new trade tariffs by Trump reintroduces a macroeconomic pressure factor that could impact the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price, which had surpassed $97,000 in recent days.
Trump’s Tariff Announcement
On January 17, Trump posted a message on the social network Truth Social, announcing the imposition of tariffs on European countries. Starting from February 1, 2026, a 10% tariff will be applied to all goods shipped to the United States from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland. This includes three of the world’s major economies. Subsequently, from June 1, 2026, this percentage will increase to 25%.
Although the message addresses multiple geopolitical issues, the commercial component is the most relevant for markets. Tariffs are taxes on imports that make international trade more expensive, often generate retaliation, and tend to increase macroeconomic uncertainty. As a result, investors adjust their exposure to risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC).
This would not be an unprecedented scenario. Last year, Trump’s imposition of tariffs on China, combined with other factors, affected traditional markets and BTC as well. Therefore, the current announcement reactivates the fear of a similar context, in which trade tension affects risk appetite. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $95,000, and the market has not yet reacted to Trump’s statements. If realized, the effects could be seen on the indicated dates.
Bitcoin’s Recent Surge Under Scrutiny
In addition to the potential danger that Trump’s new tariff policy could represent, a recent analysis by CryptoQuant characterizes BTC’s current movement as a “bear market rally.” This concept describes price increases that occur within a generally negative trend and usually exhaust before consolidating a sustained recovery.
According to the report, Bitcoin rose about 21% from November 21, after a previous drop close to 19% that confirmed a bear market by breaking the 365-day moving average. This average is a price average of Bitcoin over the last year and usually serves as a boundary between bullish and bearish phases. Currently, that level is around $101,000, a zone that the price has not yet managed to recover.
Meanwhile, according to CryptoQuant, demand conditions show only marginal improvements. US-linked indicators, such as the Coinbase premium (which measures whether the local price is higher or lower than in other markets), briefly turned positive. However, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) halted net sales after shedding about 54,000 bitcoins in November, without showing sustained accumulation, according to the report.
Furthermore, CryptoQuant assures that on-chain data reinforces this caution. The apparent demand for Bitcoin contracted by approximately 67,000 units in the last 30 days, while entries to exchanges increased to a weekly average of 39,000 Bitcoin. Historically, higher flows to exchanges often anticipate selling pressure.
In this context, Trump’s tariff announcement adds an external factor that can amplify volatility. If trade tension translates into a deterioration of the global financial climate, Bitcoin’s recent surge could face additional obstacles.
Conclusion
The announcement of new tariffs by Trump could potentially impact the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price. The macroeconomic pressure factor, combined with weak on-chain signals for Bitcoin, could lead to increased volatility and selling pressure. Investors and market participants should closely monitor these developments and adjust their risk exposure accordingly.
